Agentic AI

State of AI Report 2025

Model Economics and Architecture

• Capability per dollar doubles in 3-6 months (5x faster than Moore's law)
• Model routing is a competitive advantage
  • Smaller/dumber models to solve simple/specific tasks
  • Bigger/smarter models for more complex tasks
• Model release roadmap is tied to fundraising
• Multi-model architecture

Browser as AI Operating System

• Browser is an AI operating system by default to which agents are plugged in
• Answering engines based on search
  • Purchase intent with high conversion rate
  • Dependency on search engine(s): e.g., Google

Compute Infrastructure

• Datacenters, sovereignty, power consumption/constraint per token
  • Scaling demand for tokens, to which models
  • Hardware constraints are impacting model availability and evolution
    • Anthropic and OpenAI outages
  • Custom chips and hardware makers

Model Evolution and Measurement

• How we measure AI success, intelligence and reasoning gains
  • e.g., Claude performance degradation in Aug, 2025
• Models bigger, smarter, thinker
• Closed/open models
  • China is the leader in open weight models
    • Moonshot AI built a 1T-param MoE with 32B active trained using MuonClip
  • Concentration of talents in ecosystem
    • Qwen models are used as a base for derivative work and fine-tuning
  • Hybrid ecosystem (closed frontier models/open models for compliance/volume)

AI Sovereignty

• Sovereignty in AI
• Model access is evenly distributed, but very few are gaining from it

Emerging Paradigms

• World models
• Scaling paradigm shift from static pre-training to dynamic, on-the-fly adaptation
  • Continuous learning
• Superhuman AI systems could become "teachers" rather than just "tools"
  • Extracted novel chess techniques and teach human grandmasters
• AI is moving from answering questions to generating, testing, and validating new scientific knowledge
  • AlphaEvolve: a coding agent for algorithm discovery and engineering impact
• Computer Use Agents (CUA) have improved by leaps and bounds, and still fall short
• Usage costs: Some users are costing upwards of $50k/month for a single seat of Claude Code